Up to now, this is just a matter of probability concept
From the substitution for the (1), i’ve:
So it exemplory case of Bayes’ Theorem deals with the simple instance where you’ve got several hypotheses H and you may J that are mutually private and you can as one thorough, and you may in which you’re interested in \(\Pr(H \mid Age)\), that’s, the possibility you to H holds true given facts Age. Exactly what it example of Bayes’ Theorem does was give one having a means of calculating one to possibilities, so long as you to knows, to begin with, \(\Pr(H)\) and \(\Pr(J)\)-that’s, the fresh new a great priori analytical possibilities of \(H\) and you may \(J\)-and now have, next, \(\Pr(E \middle H)\) and you will \(\Pr(Age \middle J)\)-that’s, the fresh logical odds of \(E\) provided, respectively, just \(H\) and simply \(J\).
The good news is Draper brings up a couple of substantive claims. The foremost is that the an effective priori odds of brand new theory regarding indifference isnt below this new an excellent priori probability of theism, so we have
Draper’s next substantive allege is the fact that the conjunction from offres from the satisfaction and you can serious pain to which Draper pertains, and you can that is depicted of the \(O\)’ is much more probably be true when your theory away from indifference holds true than just when the theism holds true. (tovább…)
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